Roughly 54 million Americans had cast early ballots over the past weekend ahead of the Nov. 3 election, a burst of voting that is already reshaping the way both parties read the race. The total was 8 million higher than during the 2022 midterms, and it landed with particular force in states where Senate contests are tighter than most.
That is why the early voting figures are being searched so heavily now. They offer a first look at whether turnout is building toward a wave election, but they do not tell voters who will control the House and Senate. Michael McDonald said on Oct. 28 that the 2026 election will be the most diverse midterm electorate in U.S. history, a judgment that fits the scale of the early ballots without settling the outcome.
The numbers are strongest where the fight is closest. More than 7.7 million people have cast early ballots in Texas, where turnout has already surpassed the 40% mark from the 2018 midterms. Texas has a midterm record of 8.3 million total ballots, and David Becker said on Nov. 1 that the state is just over about 600,000 ballots away from matching that high. He called it remarkable that Election Day has not even happened yet.
Georgia has also cleared more than 2.8 million early ballots, another sign that the early surge is not confined to one region. Abdul El-Sayed, Michigan's Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate who defeated U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens in the primary, is among the candidates watching those totals closely, because Michigan is one of the places where the early voting surge has been most pronounced. Angie Nixon, the Democratic U.S. Senate nominee and a Florida state Rep., has also become part of the broader Democratic picture around the early vote, along with her membership in her local chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America.
Still, the numbers only go so far. The early-voting surge offers a glimpse of the kind of electorate Democrats would like to see in 2026, but the data cannot yet predict who will control the House and Senate. Some states are releasing fuller demographic breakdowns than others, which leaves the national picture incomplete even as the raw turnout keeps climbing. For now, the clearest reading is simple: voters are showing up early in unusually large numbers, and the final answer will not come until Nov. 3.
