The Senior Citizens League has raised its estimate for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment to 3.9%, up from 2.8%, as rising inflation pushes the forecast higher ahead of the official social security october cola announcement. For an average married couple receiving two benefits, that would mean roughly $125 more a month, lifting their total from about $3,208 in 2026 to around $3,333.
That estimate is drawing attention now because millions of retirees are trying to get a read on next year’s check before the Social Security Administration makes its mid-October announcement. The bigger forecast suggests a larger benefit boost than earlier expected, and married couples are a useful benchmark because they often collect two payments and can see the monthly change add up quickly.
Still, the 3.9% figure is only a forecast, not the official number. Some couples will end up with more than that average increase and others with less, depending on their current benefit levels. That is the friction in every COLA projection: one percentage gets talked about as if it were universal, but Social Security checks are not built that way.
The official 2027 COLA is expected in mid-October, when the administration will lock in the number for millions of beneficiaries. Personalized COLA notices are due in December, which is when recipients will see the adjustment tied to their own benefits. For now, the revised estimate is the clearest sign that inflation is still shaping next year’s retirement income, and the final figure could still land anywhere near — or away from — this forecast.
