Tennessee heads into Election Day on Tuesday with nearly 1.3 million early ballots already cast, a turnout total that topped 26% of registered voters before early voting ended this past Thursday. That is more people than voted early in the 2022 mid-term, though still about 9% shy of the total ballots cast in the 2018 governor's race.
The number matters because the governor's race has been tightening even as the calendar runs out. Marsha Blackburn is the GOP nominee, Jerri Green is the Democratic nominee, and Dave Hatley and Lauran Pinkston are running as Independents. A week ago, a poll conducted by Hatley's campaign had Blackburn at 34.5%, Green at 30.1%, Hatley at 26.5% and Pinkston at 3%, a spread that leaves little room for error on Tuesday.
Hatley, a Johnson City businessman, has put roughly $12 million of his own money into the race and says he has refused donations as well as money or input from special interest groups. Blackburn has been the favorite since she entered the contest, but her own polling had her lead starting in the 60% range and sliding over the past year to less than 44%. That narrowing has become a central fact of the race, even as she declined to appear in any debates or forums where all of her challengers were on stage together.
That decision was on display last week at a Tennessee Press Association forum at Middle Tennessee State University in Murfreesboro, where Blackburn's challengers appeared without her. On Sunday, the Nashville in Focus program on FOX 17 put the closing stretch in blunt terms. Luis Mata said the only poll that matters is the one on Tuesday and argued the numbers show Tennesseans are fed up and want something different after nearly two decades of Republican control. Megan Lee Podsiedlik said Blackburn needs to ignite her base and that skipping a forum may not matter to supporters, but she still has to show up for them. Jasper Hendricks put the race in turnout terms, saying it will come down to who actually reaches voters and gets them to the polls.
Tuesday will answer the only question that counts now: whether the early vote was enough to lock in an advantage, or whether the late-deciding ballots reshuffle a race that has been close long before Election Day arrived.
