Hacienda delivered the 2027 Economic Package late to the Chamber of Deputies, then stayed behind schedule by another half hour before putting it online. The document lays out a narrower deficit, more tax revenue and a heavier push toward social spending, while still leaving Pemex with 255 billion pesos.
The package matters now because it sets the fiscal frame for next year: a deficit of 3.9% of GDP, revenue of 23.2% of GDP and growth of around 2%. It also opens a debate the government cannot avoid, because the projection for Tax collection is higher than what is being achieved today, and the gap is already visible in the numbers through July.
On spending, the plan directs more than 450 billion pesos extra to desarrollo social and cuts desarrollo económico by almost 200 billion pesos. It also foresees a contraction in public investment of around 120 billion pesos, which makes the overall shift hard to miss: more money for current commitments, less for the projects that usually carry future growth.
That is the central contradiction inside the package. Hacienda says government revenue will reach 23.2% of GDP next year, yet revenue has stayed below 22% through July of the current year, and ISR collection fell this year for the first time in many years. To bridge that distance, the plan assumes a notable rise in ISR receipts, even as the medium-term section only places revenue at 22.8% of GDP from 2028 to 2032.
Hacienda is also asking readers to accept two different growth stories at once. The package uses a 2% estimate for next year, slightly above the average of specialists at 1.8%, while the deficit is supposed to ease from 4.1% of GDP this year to 3.9% of GDP in 2027. But the 4.1% figure already looks unlikely based on data through July, which means the starting point for the next year’s math may be softer than the budget assumes.
For taxpayers and spending programs, the message is clear. The 2027 plan protects Pemex, expands social spending and trims economic-development and investment spending, all while depending on stronger Tax collection to make the sums work. Whether the revenue target holds will be the test that decides if the package is a blueprint or just an optimistic balance sheet.
