NOAA updated its eight-to-14-day outlook for Sept. 11-17, and the new National Weather Service September Map points to a warmer stretch for most of the US. The map also shows wetter-than-normal or near-normal rain chances across many regions as the country moves deeper into September.
The timing matters because August has already ended, and the forecast window covers the opening days of mid-September. That means the map is not just a broad seasonal guess; it is a specific read on what many people will feel over the next week, from lingering summer-like heat to changes in rainfall patterns.
Temperature is where the outlook draws the sharpest line. The South and parts of the Midwest are in the strongest warm signal, with temperatures likely above normal and odds in the 70-90% range. The rest of the Midwest and parts of the West South Central region also stay in the likely-above category, while a portion of the West and Southwest leans above normal. Most of New England is also expected to run warmer than average.
That said, the map does not put the whole country in the same bucket. The West Coast and the Pacific Northwest are forecast to stay near normal for Sept. 11-17, breaking from the broader pattern of warmth across most of the country. In other words, the heat signal is widespread, but it is not universal.
Rainfall trends are mixed in a similar way. Most of the US could see above-average precipitation through the beginning of mid-September, but a good chunk of the South and most of the Midwest are expected to stay near normal. The West North Central, West South Central and parts of the Mountain regions lean above on precipitation, while New England does too. The West Coast is likely above for most of the region, and a small pocket of the Pacific Northwest is more likely to get above-average rainfall.
Alaska and Hawaii are also forecast to receive precipitation above the norm. NOAA is not describing certainty in absolute terms here; its outlook is probabilistic. In practical terms, likely above means the odds favor above-normal conditions, leaning above means the signal is weaker but still tilted that way, and near normal means the most likely outcome is close to the long-term average.
The bigger picture is a September forecast that still feels a lot like late summer in much of the country. NOAA’s map suggests the first full week of the month will bring warmth over most regions, but it also leaves room for cooler pockets on the West Coast and wetter stretches in several other areas. What the forecast does not explain is the weather pattern behind that split, and that is the main unanswered question as the week begins.
