Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said Space Exploration Technologies Corp. could reach $600 a share in a bull case, a level that would value the company at $8 trillion. Jonas had originally initiated coverage on July 7 with an overweight rating and a $300 target, and he reaffirmed that view on Tuesday.
That is why investors keep searching the SPCX stock price today: the range around the name is unusually wide, even by Wall Street standards. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, the average target sits around $227, while the high target is $800. Jonas’s own framework now spans from $75 in a bear case to $600 in a bull case, with a base target of $300 in between.
The difference comes down to how much of Space Exploration Technologies Corp.’s future business model you are willing to believe in. In Jonas’s bull case, the company would successfully deploy AI data centers in orbit at scale and cheaply, with Starship flying often and efficiently enough to cut the cost of deploying AI computing capacity to half the current rate. Starlink would also need to expand far beyond home internet and humans, while hundreds of millions, if not billions, of AI-powered robots would be subscribed to by 2040 at an average revenue per user of $35.
That is a far more aggressive setup than the one Morningstar is using. Its core launch and Starlink businesses are worth about $40 a share in Morningstar’s view, and its Moonshot scenario reaches $154 a share with a 7% probability. Morgan Stanley and Jonas also have a bear case at $75, which is close enough to the lower end of the debate to show how much of the valuation depends on business lines that do not exist at scale yet.
Jonas made that point directly on July 24, when he wrote that a $100 share price would imply the market was assigning no value at all to SpaceX’s AI business. That line captures the split in the valuation debate: for one camp, the market is already pricing in a huge amount of future growth, while for Jonas’s bull case it is still leaving most of the upside untouched. Johnny Rice said he has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.
For now, the Spcx Stock Price story is less about where the shares trade today than about how much of the future investors are willing to pay for upfront. The gap between $75, $227, $300 and $600 leaves the market with a simple question: whether Space Exploration Technologies Corp. should be valued like a transport and communications company, or like an AI platform that has not yet been built.
