Long-term borrowing costs kept climbing on Monday, pushing the 10-year Treasury above 4.60% and lifting the 30-year Treasury to its highest level since 2007. By Tuesday morning, the Nasdaq 100 was down 0.7% as semiconductors and other megacap technology names softened again.
The move matters because current mortgage rates tend to follow the same broad direction as long-dated Treasury yields, and this week those yields are rising across major markets. The 30-year gilt in the U.K. is trading at levels not seen since the late 1990s, while long-dated Japanese yields are at multi-decade highs, a sign that the pressure is global rather than confined to one market. One market watcher summed up the shift bluntly: the 30-year Treasury is at its highest level since 2007 and the 10-year pushed above 4.60% on Monday.
The backdrop is not just about bonds. Nvidia earnings are due after the close on Wednesday, and traders are treating that report as one of the near-term events most likely to move the market. Nvidia stock has fallen on the day of its earnings release in three of the last four quarterly reports, and each of those three declines came after the company beat expectations, a reminder that a strong headline result has not been enough to guarantee a rally.
That caution is showing up in the broader tone as well. An unknown market voice warned investors to stay focused on the price action and not to be too trusting of bounce action at this point, a warning that fits with the way the bond selloff has persisted for more than one session. President Trump’s decision to delay an attack on Iran at the request of Middle East leaders also had only a limited effect on markets this time, leaving the broader drift in yields and equities intact.
The immediate test is whether Wednesday’s Nvidia update can shake investors out of the defensive posture that has taken hold. If it does not, the market will be left staring at higher yields, softer tech shares and a mortgage backdrop that is becoming more expensive just as homebuyers head deeper into the summer season.
