Australian shares were poised to rise on Tuesday as oil prices surged above $104 a barrel and traders watched a fragile Iran ceasefire wobble further after stalled negotiations. Donald Trump said the truce was “on life support”, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained disrupted.
The firmer tone followed a weak finish on Monday, when Australia’s benchmark index fell 0.5% or 42.6 points to close at 8,701.80. Wall Street gave the local market a modest lead overnight, with the S&P 500 up 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite ahead 0.1%.
The move higher comes as investors keep one eye on the domestic economy. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian consumer confidence index fell 3.1 points to 64.1 in the week of May 4 to May 10, reinforcing the sense that households are still cautious. On Tuesday, traders were also waiting for Westpac consumer confidence and NAB business confidence reports, which could shape expectations for the rest of the week.
That backdrop matters because the market is trying to balance geopolitics, interest-rate expectations and company news all at once. Rising crude prices can feed directly into inflation worries, while weaker confidence readings can deepen concerns about demand at home. For Australian investors, the combination is awkward: gains in energy-linked stocks can be offset by pressure on consumer-facing names and broader risk appetite.
Corporate updates added another layer to the session. Life360 reported first-quarter earnings of $0.03 per share on revenue of $143.1 million, compared with earnings of $0.05 per share on revenue of $103.6 million a year earlier. The figures show stronger revenue but thinner profit, a reminder that growth stories can still come with trade-offs as spending and expansion plans continue.
Insurance Australia Group also outlined a long-range plan, targeting gross written premiums of more than AU$25 billion by 2030, a return on equity of more than 15% and high single-digit earnings per share growth each year by the end of the decade. The targets are ambitious, and they give investors a clearer benchmark for judging whether management can turn scale into steady returns.
For now, Tuesday’s market mood is being driven less by one company and more by the collision of global tension and local caution. If oil stays elevated and domestic confidence data keeps softening, the next move in Australian shares will depend on which force proves stronger: the relief from a steadier Wall Street lead or the drag from a world that still feels unsettled.
