North Carolinians vote Tuesday in races for state representatives and senators that could determine whether Republicans keep control of the General Assembly. The closest contests are expected in and near the Triangle, where several State House seats may decide whether Democrats can make the gains they need to matter in the next session.
That is why Josh Stein is in the middle of this election even though he is not on the ballot. If Democrats pick up enough seats, he could enter office with stronger veto power, a shift that would change how much leverage Republicans have used in Raleigh for nearly a decade.
The numbers show how narrow the path is. Republicans hold 71 of the House’s 120 seats, and Democrats need to gain 14 seats to flip the chamber. Fourteen Republican-held House districts are in places where at least 44% of voters backed Joe Biden for President in 2020, giving Democrats a map that is competitive but still steep. Republicans also hold 30 of 50 Senate seats, which makes a takeover of that chamber much harder and leaves the House as Democrats’ best opening.
The battle is not limited to one region. State House races in and near the Triangle are expected to be among North Carolina’s closest legislative contests, and tight fights are also expected in and around Asheville, Charlotte, Greensboro, Wilmington and Winston-Salem. Political analysts say Democrats have their best chance in years to gain meaningful influence, but that chance is concentrated in a House map where every district matters and the margin for error is tiny.
There is a catch to the Democratic case. Republicans have spent nearly a decade with enough strength in both chambers to enact many of their proposals with ease, and they still enter Tuesday with the advantage. They used that power in early October to call a special session and suspend the state’s gas tax, which is 41 cents per gallon, through the end of November, a move that passed with bipartisan support. At the same time, a WRAL/WSOC Poll released last month found that 37% of likely voters statewide approve of Donald Trump’s job performance since he returned to the White House, a sign that the political environment is still unsettled even in a year when Democrats are hoping turnout helps them.
The result on Tuesday will not just set the size of the Republican majority. It will tell Democrats whether the House is close enough to take, or whether Stein will begin his term facing the same lopsided legislature that has defined North Carolina politics since 2010.
