Republican lawmakers in Texas redrew the map before the 2026 House elections with the hope of flipping up to five Democratic-held seats. The race to watch now is not just who leads, but whether that map change turns into actual wins.
That is why Texas Voting Polls are drawing so much attention today. NBC News is providing live results for the Texas U.S. House Midterm Election 2026, and the competitive map stretches across Texas, with three close races in South Texas where the Latino vote is expected to be pivotal.
The expected vote is the total number of votes that are expected in a given race once all votes are counted. It is an estimate built from several factors, including the number of votes cast early and information provided on Election Day by county election officials. Because it is an estimate, the figure can change as NBC News gathers new information, which means the picture in each race may shift as more votes are added.
That is where the friction shows up. Republican lawmakers drew the map to try to gain ground, but the contests remain competitive, and the outcome in South Texas is still tied to how Latino voters break. The redrawn lines may have created the opportunity, but they did not create certainty.
What matters next is the count itself. As votes continue to come in, the expected vote can move, the competitive races can tighten or widen, and the final shape of the Texas delegation will hinge on whether the map Republicans drew delivers the seats they wanted.
