UBS raised its Brent oil forecast to $100 a barrel for the last quarter of 2026 and lifted its average estimate for the year to $91.57 from $83.74, a sharper call on Oil prices after fresh disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. The bank said the shift reflects the breakdown of the memorandum of understanding signed by Washington and Iran in June and continuing Iranian attacks on oil tankers.
The revision lands now because Brent has been trading around $98.5 in recent sessions even after falling about 1.8%, showing that the market is still charging a heavy geopolitical premium. The G7 has already released emergency reserves, but that has not erased the fear built into prices as supplies move through one of the world’s most sensitive shipping routes.
For Spain, the warning is blunt. The country imports practically all the crude it consumes, so a Brent price of $100 in the last quarter would raise the floor used to calculate fuels, flights and transport by 25%. That would filter into road transport, Iberia and Vueling, trawler fishing, irrigated agriculture and tourism, which accounts for about 12% of GDP.
The hit would not stop at the pump. Higher crude prices usually flow through to freight, food and energy bills, and electro-intensive industry and chemicals also pay more because oil raises the cost of both raw material and power. Repsol and Moeve can benefit when pricier crude turns into pricier refined products, but their result depends more on the speed of the adjustment than on where Brent settles.
There is, however, a gap between the calm headline and the risk underneath it. Shipments from the Persian Gulf exceeded prewar levels for much of September, yet UBS still sees the recovery as fragile, with ongoing attacks keeping a large premium in the market. That is why the bank’s central case assumes a gradual normalization of supplies in the first half of 2027 and a similar agreement before the end of 2027, while warning that new attacks could push Brent above $120.
For now, the message is that Oil has not eased back into normal trading. The route through Hormuz may be open enough to move barrels, but not stable enough to remove the fear that is shaping prices in Spain and beyond.
