Lowell weakened slightly on Wednesday but remained a Category 4 hurricane as it passed about 440 miles south of Hilo, still packing maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. Forecasters said it was expected to stay a major hurricane for several days.
That is why people across Hawaii are watching this storm closely today. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft collected the latest data on Lowell at 5 p.m., when it was moving west at 10 mph and its hurricane-force winds reached 35 miles from the center, with tropical storm-force winds stretching 90 miles out.
The numbers matter because Lowell is not fading fast. Under the latest five-day forecast track, it was expected to stay a major hurricane through the weekend, then begin to weaken more noticeably around day 5 as increasing wind shear from an upper-level trough starts to work against it. By Monday afternoon, it was forecast to be a strong Category 3 storm with 125 mph sustained winds and to sit just over 300 miles southwest of Lihue.
Even with that path, forecasters said it was too soon to determine what impacts the Hawaiian Islands might see. That uncertainty sat alongside a wind advisory already in effect from the Big Island to Oahu through 6 a.m. Friday, with east winds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts up to 55 mph for Maui County and Hawaii island, and east winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph for Oahu.
The gap between the advisory and the forecast is the heart of the story. Lowell is still far enough away that officials cannot yet pin down the outcome, but close enough to keep residents on alert. Forecasters expected the storm to start turning north over the weekend and move toward the western islands by early next week, which is why the next update matters more than any one reading on Wednesday.
Honolulu city officials told residents to keep normal routines while watching the forecast through the weekend, and Rick Blangiardi said there was no cause for alarm right now. He urged people to pay attention, make sure they have what they need and use the time to prepare, saying, “This is about being aware and being ready.”
For now, Lowell remains the kind of storm Hawaii can track, not the kind it can dismiss. The question that will decide the rest of the week is whether it keeps that northward turn and how much it weakens before it nears the western islands.
