Only six ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, a steep drop from 15 the day before, while traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait climbed to 49 vessels. Five of the ships in Hormuz used the northern route designated by Iran rather than the U.S.-sanctioned route to the south, underscoring how sharply operators are adjusting to security risks.
The shift matters because these waterways are central to oil transport and commercial shipping, and Friday brought another sign that the market is still reacting. Brent crude fell back under $100 and was down about 4% by 2 p.m. ET to about $96, after touching $101 on Thursday, its highest level since May. Traders are watching whether the reduced traffic through Hormuz and the rebound in Bab el-Mandeb crossings will hold, or whether ships will again pull back if threats intensify.
That rebound was not random. Kpler said several ships that had previously reversed course in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea completed their crossings, while others remained on hold after earlier U turns. Its view was that the pattern points to a cautious but selective return to transit activity as operators continue to assess security conditions. The numbers suggest some crews are willing to move again, but only after waiting long enough to see whether the route looks safer than it did days earlier.
The change came after the Houthis targeted two Saudi-flagged ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait late Wednesday into Thursday. On Friday, the Houthis said they were only targeting Saudi vessels. That leaves carriers with a narrow and unstable reading of the threat: some traffic has resumed, but only under conditions that can change quickly and without much warning.
Trump added a political wrinkle to the shipping picture on Friday in the Oval Office. Asked about Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, he said he trusted them not to assist Iran, even as Pete Hegseth said China and Russia are, at different levels, enabling what Iran is doing. Trump also refused to say whether blowing up power plants and bridges in Iran would be a war crime, turning a question about maritime disruption into a wider test of how far he is willing to go in describing the conflict around Iran.
For now, the answer is not that shipping has returned to normal. It is that operators are moving selectively, one crossing at a time, in waters where a single attack can still send vessels back the other way.
