The sun lit up with 10 M-class solar flares in 24 hours, and several of the eruptions threw off coronal mass ejections that appear to be heading toward Earth. That burst of activity is now pushing forecasters toward a stronger Northern Lights outlook for the July 4 weekend.
Tamitha Skov called the sun a “Machine-gun sun” and said more than five solar storms are on their way to Earth, with at least three offering “good chances” for aurora displays. She said the first storm could arrive before 8 a.m. EDT on July 3, or 1200 GMT, which is why readers are seeing the Northern Lights search spike now as the holiday weekend approaches.
The timing matters because NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is already forecasting moderate G2 geomagnetic storm conditions beginning tonight, with its latest outlook calling for G2 conditions around 8-11 p.m. EDT, or 0000-0300 GMT, and minor G1 conditions for much of July 3. The agency said the forecast is driven primarily by the CME launched during the June 30 X1.1 solar flare, while Skov pointed to the July 1 eruptions as well, including at least one CME with an Earth-directed component.
That is where the forecast gets messy. Skov said NOAA and NASA model predictions do not show all the storms yet, even though multiple CMEs appear to be on the way, and the strength of the geomagnetic response will depend on whether those magnetic fields line up in a favorable orientation when they reach Earth. If they do, she said G2 or stronger storm conditions are possible; if they do not, the display could be weaker than the early readings suggest.
For people in parts of the northern U.S., including New York and Idaho, the payoff could come if skies are dark and clear, though lingering twilight in the northern hemisphere may make the lights harder to spot. Forecasters will keep tracking the incoming CMEs through the day, but the next real answer will come only when they meet Earth's magnetic field and reveal how much of this solar burst turns into a visible show.
