Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz picked up over the weekend, but the rebound was still modest enough to leave the waterway far below normal. Kpler counted 23 transits a day from Friday through Sunday, well above the single-digit levels seen in April at the height of the war, yet still nowhere near the prewar average of 130 vessels.
That matters because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important trade chokepoints, and even a partial return in traffic can ripple through crude and freight markets. On Monday, U.S. crude fell 2.7% to about $74 a barrel, its first close below $75 since early March, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a 60-day waiver on sanctions tied to purchases of Iranian oil. International Brent crude fell 4% to about $77 a barrel, while both benchmarks stayed above their immediate prewar levels of $62 and $68.
Bessent said Iran had committed to free and open transit in the Strait of Hormuz, and the weekend data suggested traders were willing to believe him for now. Kpler recorded 19 crossings on Friday, 35 on Saturday and 17 on Sunday, a swing that shows how uneven the recovery still is. Argus data also showed urea prices had fallen 50% from the peaks seen in April, another sign that pressure in shipping-linked commodity markets has eased at least for the moment.
But the traffic was not fully normal. Kpler said most ships were still using routes designated by Iran or turning off their transponders as they moved through the waterway, meaning the flow was returning without becoming fully transparent. That is the friction point that will decide whether the improvement lasts: vessels are moving again, but they are doing so in a way that leaves the market with less visibility than it had before the Iran conflict disrupted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
For now, the weekend rebound looks real, but it looks fragile too. If traffic keeps rising, the pressure on crude and shipping costs could keep easing; if threats and negotiations turn again, the corridor that carries so much of global trade can still tighten fast.
