Minnesota’s Weather Authority issued a Forecast First ALERT for Wednesday as forecasters tracked the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across the state. Much of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro, remains under an Enhanced Risk, or Level 3 out of 5, with the main threat window stretching through Wednesday afternoon and evening.
That is why Madison weather searches are climbing now: people want to know whether the storms will stay over Minnesota or push east into Wisconsin. The answer depends on how the atmosphere behaves through Wednesday morning, when lingering clouds and showers could keep eastern Minnesota from heating up enough to fire stronger storms.
Two separate rounds of storms are being watched between tonight and Wednesday evening. Overnight, the primary concern is damaging straight-line winds, especially as a squall line moves east across western Minnesota. By Wednesday afternoon, storms may develop first as more discrete cells, a setup that can bring hail and isolated tornadoes before the system organizes later in the day.
The catch is that this severe-weather setup is still conditional. If clouds and leftover showers hang around through much of Wednesday afternoon, instability across eastern Minnesota would be limited and the strongest weather could shift farther east. If sunshine returns faster than expected, that same area could warm enough for the severe risk to grow before storms move into Wisconsin.
Wednesday is expected to turn hot and very humid, with highs in the upper 80s, adding fuel to the day’s storm potential. Forecasters will keep updating the timing and severity in real time through Wednesday, because the difference between a rough afternoon in Minnesota and a more serious storm threat in Wisconsin may come down to a few hours of cloud cover.
By late week, the pattern settles down. Thursday should bring clouds, scattered showers and highs in the 70s, followed by sunshine and highs near 80 on Friday.
