Netweather has put an early marker on the UK’s summer 2026 weather forecast, saying the season could stay warmer than average and that August may end up the hottest and driest month. The outlook comes after a remarkably warm and dry spring, and it suggests the country could spend much of the summer feeling the effects of a persistent warm trend.
That is the kind of forecast people start searching for now because it shapes plans well before the school holidays, travel bookings and outdoor events are fixed. The broad signal is for above-average temperatures through the summer, but rainfall looks less predictable, with June expected to begin unsettled and cooler than late May, bringing chances of rain before conditions improve later in the month.
Netweather says the picture then gets more settled in phases. High pressure may return later in June, bringing drier and warmer conditions, while July is expected to be warm, sometimes hot, but still changeable. By August, the model guidance turns more emphatic: it is the month most likely to deliver the strongest heat and the least rain of the season, a combination that would matter for anyone watching water use, holiday weather and growing conditions across the UK.
The forecast is not based on one model alone. It draws on seasonal trends, subseasonal ECMWF guidance, El Niño expectations and composite charts from years with similar conditions. The wider European signals also lean warm, with seasonal temperature forecast to be above average across all regions and the strongest heat signal over southeastern Europe. But the rainfall signal is weaker than the temperature signal, which leaves more room for regional swings and for June to behave very differently from the second half of summer.
That is the friction in the outlook. The summer signal points to warmth, yet the first stretch of June may still look nothing like a settled July or August, with low pressure in charge during the first half of the month before higher pressure returns later. ECMWF subseasonal forecasts also suggest the pressure pattern may drift north of the UK, which could leave the south less settled even as the season warms overall. In other words, the early summer may begin cool and showery before the broader hot pattern has a chance to settle in.
The next real test will come in June, when the short-range pattern will show whether that unsettled opening holds and how quickly high pressure rebuilds. Beyond that, the question is not whether summer 2026 can turn warm — the current signal says it can — but whether August really delivers the hottest, driest spell of the season or whether the wet and cool start to June slows that trend down.
