Forecasters say a potentially powerful El Niño is expected to develop in the Pacific Ocean later this year, and scientists now think the odds are rising that it could become one of the most intense events on record. The warning comes as researchers watch sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific for signs that the warming could keep building.
An El Niño is the climate pattern that develops when surface waters in the equatorial Pacific become significantly warmer than average, and a super El Niño is the stronger version of that event. Christopher Skinner said waters must warm about 2 degrees Celsius above average for the event to be classified as a super El Niño, but scientists are not yet certain that threshold will be reached. Some forecasts now project Pacific temperatures could rise close to 3 degrees Celsius above average by late 2026.
The scale matters because the Pacific can send its effects far beyond the region where it starts. Mathew Barlow said: “What goes on in the tropical Pacific doesn’t stay in the tropical Pacific.” He added: “It goes on to influence global weather and climate over the U.S. and over every major continent as well.”
El Niño happens roughly every 3 to 7 years, and the last super event came in 2015-16. Other super El Niños were recorded in 1997-1998, 1982-1983 and 1972-1973. Researchers say they will likely know more by June or July, when the developing Pacific pattern should be easier to judge.
For the United States, the effects are uneven. The southern tier from California to Florida tends to see wetter-than-average conditions during El Niño events, while Massachusetts has a weaker connection than many other places. Even so, experts say the clearest local impacts there are usually warmer winters, less snowfall and more humid conditions, with a hotter, stickier summer also possible and a reduced risk of Atlantic hurricanes.
The tension in the forecast is that the signal is strengthening before the event is fully locked in. Scientists say a super El Niño remains only a possibility for now, but if the Pacific keeps warming, the next few months could decide whether the world is heading toward another major disruption or a milder version of the same pattern. Parts of the Amazon rainforest, southern Africa and Australia could also face drought during El Niño years, a reminder that the consequences are often felt far from the sea where they begin.
