Parts of the UK are heading into a sharp warm-up this week, with the Met Office saying temperatures could climb to 28C ahead of the bank holiday weekend and, in a few places, meet the definition of a heatwave by Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
After widespread showers to start the week, temperatures are forecast to rise to 21C by Wednesday before most places turn dry on Thursday and Friday. In south-eastern parts of England, the forecast is for highs of up to 28C, which would be the warmest weather of the year so far and above the 26.6C recorded at Kew Gardens during an unusually warm early April.
That jump will feel even more striking after the UK’s unusually cold spell last week. The change is being driven by winds turning away from the north, to south-westerlies earlier in the week and then southerlies later on, carrying milder air across the country. Low pressure is in charge at the start of the week, but conditions are expected to settle as high pressure builds to the east on Friday and draws in a warm southerly breeze.
The heat, though, will not be spread evenly. A UK heatwave is defined by the Met Office as at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures above a county-specific threshold, and that means 28C is the key level in Greater London while 25C is the marker in Northern Ireland. At the moment, counties such as Herefordshire and Worcestershire look most likely to meet that test, although a few other places could join them if the warmth holds through the weekend.
There is still a catch. A weather front is expected to threaten rain to the west on Friday, and showers could also develop over the bank holiday weekend, so the warm spell may be interrupted even as some parts of England edge into heatwave territory. That makes this less a blanket summer surge than a brief, uneven burst of heat, with the best of it concentrated in the south-east and the west still vulnerable to a wetter turn.
For people planning the long weekend, the next question is not whether Britain will get a taste of summer, but how long it lasts. If the current forecast holds, the first heatwave of the year will arrive in a patchwork rather than all at once, with the hottest readings likely on Thursday and Friday and the official threshold met only in selected counties.
