Britain is set for a noticeable warm-up after a week that felt more like winter, with temperatures expected to rise steadily into the Uk Bank Holiday weekend and beyond. After days of showers, thunderstorms and hail, the change will bring brighter spells, but not a clean break from unsettled weather.

Temperatures had been running around 4-7C below average this week, but they are due to return to around average in the mid to high teens before climbing into the low twenties for much of the United Kingdom from mid-week. Parts of south-east England could reach 26C by the end of the week, though there is still uncertainty about that forecast this far ahead.

The shift will begin as the wind turns more westerly over the weekend, making it feel warmer even before the numbers rise much. Saturday is expected to start bright, before cloud builds from the west and rain spreads into Northern Ireland and western areas of England and Wales. By Sunday, temperatures should be around 12-16C, with showers mostly limited to northern and western areas and sunny spells elsewhere.

That pattern is important because it marks a sharp turn from the recent spell of northerly winds, showers and cold snaps that left recent days feeling unseasonably harsh for many people. Thunderstorms and hail are common features at this time of year, but the coming week should feel different as warmer, southerly winds begin to take hold and push temperatures upwards.

By Tuesday and Wednesday next week, temperatures are expected to have reached or just surpassed average levels, with 16-20C for most parts of the UK. Later in the week, the warming is forecast to continue, with 20-26C looking likely across most areas and the highest values most likely in south-east England.

The catch is that the weather will not settle completely. Sunshine will appear at times, but showers or longer spells of rain are still expected to feature, and the weekend itself should remain changeable. That means the uk bank holiday period is looking warmer, not dry; the bigger question is whether the late-week heat arrives strongly enough to deliver the first proper taste of summer for much of the country.