The Chicago Sky brought a 2-1 record into Sunday’s game at Target Center, and they did so facing a Minnesota Lynx team with the same mark and a very similar early-season identity. The matchup on May 17 looked like one that would be decided on the glass, in the half court and in the first few possessions.
That made Natasha Howard one of the most important players on the floor. Howard returned to Minnesota in the middle of what has been described as a resurgence, and the numbers backed it up: she led the Lynx with seven rebounds per game, carried a 28.1 usage rate, her highest in five seasons, and averaged 15.3 points. She had 26 points and 14 rebounds over her last two games, and her rebound line sat at 7.5 with +120 odds.
Chicago’s need was obvious. The Sky entered the game with the lowest rebound percentage in the WNBA at 46% and had surrendered the third-most rebounds per game at 35.3. Minnesota, by contrast, had a frontcourt answer in Howard, who ranked 14th in total rebound percentage at 12.8 among players logging at least 25 minutes per game and second in offensive rebound percentage at 17.9. That set up a direct test of strength and positioning that could shape every possession.
The style of the game pointed in the same direction. The Sky and the Lynx were two of the most three-point averse teams in the league, and Chicago had played at the second-lowest pace in the WNBA while posting the second-best defensive rating. Over the last two games, both teams ranked in the top seven in fewest points allowed, which gave the meeting the feel of a physical, low-scoring fight rather than a track meet.
There was also a small but telling battle at the opening tip. Howard had lost three straight tips, while Kamilla Cardoso had won three straight. Cardoso also had a five-inch height advantage over Howard. In each of Chicago’s first three games, Cardoso attempted the first shot, but the results had not yet broken her way: she was fouled in the opener, had her attempt blocked in the second game and missed a layup in her most recent outing before Sunday.
That is why one bettor framed the night around a simple expectation: Cardoso finally breaking through on that opening chance after three close calls. It was a small piece of a larger game story, but in a matchup built on rebounds, defense and limited space, those first touches mattered more than usual.
The context around Minnesota added another layer. Napheesa Collier was sidelined, and Jessica Shepard and Alanna Smith were in Dallas, leaving Howard as the clearest interior anchor in a game the Lynx still entered as three straight underdogs this season and 3-0 ATS. Even so, they were not playing like a team short on answers. They were back home, healthy enough in the right places to threaten Chicago, and still carrying the kind of defensive edge that makes them hard to separate from.
For the Sky, the assignment was straightforward and difficult at the same time. They had to rebound better, slow the game down and avoid giving Howard the kind of second-chance opportunities that can tilt a possession-by-possession game. If they failed, Minnesota had enough on the inside to make sure the margin stayed thin all the way through.
