The Chicago Sky walked into Target Center on Sunday, May 17, with a rebounding problem and a matchup that could make it worse. The Minnesota Lynx, also 2-1, hosted Chicago with Natasha Howard in the middle of a strong start that has made her one of the early keys to the night.
Howard entered the game as Minnesota’s top rebounder at seven boards per contest while also averaging 15.3 points, and she had gone over 26 points and 14 rebounds across her last two games. Her rebound line sat at 7.5 with +120 odds, a number that reflected both her role and the Lynx’s need for her on the glass. With Napheesa Collier sidelined and Jessica Shepard and Alanna Smith in Dallas, Howard’s job in the paint mattered even more than usual. The Lynx had also opened 3-0 ATS, a sign that they had been cashing in even before the market caught up to them.
Chicago’s numbers gave the game its edge. The Sky owned the lowest rebound percentage in the WNBA at 46% and had allowed the third-most rebounds per game at 35.3. They also came in as the second-lowest pace team in the league, while carrying the second-best defensive rating, a profile that can turn possessions into a grind and keep a game within reach even when the box score tilts the other way. That set up a difficult test for a Minnesota team that had been underdog in all three of its games this season yet kept finding results.
There was also a clear reason to expect the game to stay tight and physical. The Lynx and Sky were described as two of the most three-point averse teams in the WNBA, which usually means more shots in the lane, more contact on the boards and fewer possessions that swing the score in a hurry. In that kind of game, Howard’s work around the rim becomes harder to ignore, especially against a Chicago front line built around Kamilla Cardoso.
Cardoso entered with a five-inch height advantage over Howard and had won the last three tips, while Howard had lost three straight. In Chicago’s first three games, Cardoso attempted the first shot each time, a small but telling sign of how the Sky want to establish their interior game early. That matters here because Minnesota’s answer has been Howard’s activity in the paint, the area where she has quietly become the most consistent piece in the early season.
The weight of the matchup sits in the same place as the numbers. Chicago can defend, but it has struggled to finish possessions. Minnesota has been winning enough around Howard to keep covering even when it is not favored. If the Sky do not clean up the glass, the Lynx do not need a fast game to control it. They just need Howard to keep doing what she has done since the season opened.
