The Los Angeles mayoral race went to election day in a dead heat, with Karen Bass and Nithya Raman each backed by 40% of likely L.A. voters in the final UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll. Even with the top two candidates tied, 19% of likely voters were still undecided.
That is why the last burst of celebrity endorsements mattered so much. On one side, Jane Fonda, Yvette Nicole Brown, Anthony Anderson, Cedric the Entertainer, Samuel L. Jackson, Kym Whitley, D.L. Hughley, Dustin Lance Black, George Lopez and Stevie Wonder lined up behind Bass. On the other, Bob Odenkirk, Mindy Kaling, Adam Scott, Joel Kim Booster, Caleb Hearon, Poppy Liu, P. J. Byrne, Adam Conover, Brennan Lee Mulligan and Jaboukie Young-White backed Raman.
The numbers point to a race that could turn on the last voters to show up, because a tie at 40% leaves a large enough pool for a late shift to matter. The poll also shows why both campaigns leaned so hard on recognizable names in the closing stretch: each side was trying to speak to people who had not made up their minds yet.
Some of the celebrity pitches were tailored to the issues each candidate wanted to own. Jackson said Bass had walked toward the nationwide homeless epidemic in one day, while also arguing that she had taken on a citywide problem across 15 districts with Washington cutting funding. Kaling framed her support for Raman around keeping Hollywood jobs in Los Angeles, saying she was talking about crew members, electricians, grips, hair and makeup artists, drivers, set builders, editors, restaurants, dry cleaners and small businesses that depend on productions staying in town.
The closing-day fight also spilled onto social media in ways that did not fit the usual campaign script. Bass posted a video of Trixie Mattel’s voting PSA to her account. Raman, meanwhile, cross-posted a discussion with Jason Oppenheim. Arnold Schwarzenegger was also said to have held an off-the-record meeting with Raman and figures from Hollywood and other industries at his Los Angeles office, a sign that the race had become as much about attention and access as about policy lines.
Bass enters election day as the incumbent, while Raman is the progressive challenger. But the final poll leaves the real question where the campaigns have been all week: whether the undecided 19% breaks late enough to change a contest that looked even from the start. In a mayor race this close, the last ballots may matter more than the loudest endorsements.
