Aaron Ford is cutting into Joe Lombardo’s edge in Nevada’s governor race as early voting and a late Democratic ad push nudge one of the country’s closest contests toward the Democrat. The shift has come with nine days left before Election Day, a window in which every turnout push carries more weight.
That is the backdrop for a race that has become a live search for signs of movement. Prediction market odds have surged in Ford’s favor, and early vote totals have been good news for Democrats, even as Lombardo still enters the final stretch with a fundraising and advertising advantage that has kept him competitive.
The late help from national Democrats came in the form of a seven-figure advertising boost, a signal that Ford’s allies see the race as close enough to justify a final burst of money. Downballot Republicans, meanwhile, have continued to tout Lombardo’s support, betting that his name recognition and incumbent advantage can still hold if Republican voters turn out.
Lombardo, who has been trying to keep the focus on turnout, called it a critical time for Nevada when he visited the St. George & St. Dimitrie Romanian Orthodox Church in Las Vegas on a crisp fall afternoon. Lia Roberts greeted him there with a shot-glass-sized paper cup of țuică and the toast “noroc,” a small exchange that fit the campaign’s larger effort to reach voters where they gather and where they listen.
At the church, Lombardo said, “Your vote matters in the state of Nevada, and unfortunately, when there isn't a president on the ballot, people tend to be a little apathetic and they don't show up.” He added, “We gotta change that.” The message was plain: he is still trying to build a turnout argument in a race where the numbers are no longer working cleanly in his favor.
The fight is playing out in a state where Republican candidates have been hurt by Donald Trump’s unpopularity and by high prices, while Lombardo’s favorability ratings remain double digits higher than the president’s. That mix has made Nevada unusually volatile, even by its standards, and it helps explain why Ford’s late momentum matters now rather than later.
Lombardo has not stopped campaigning locally. On Friday, while canvassing in Reno, he told The Nevada Independent that faith-based and other communities should hear from him directly. He said he had learned early in his career that people cannot be understood from a distance, saying, “I found out early on when I was a sheriff, even way before I was sheriff as a police officer … we don't have that complete understanding of the community, especially when you're a young police officer,” and, “As you move forward in your career, you understand you're only successful as the trust you.”
That is the race now: Ford gaining ground, Lombardo still protected by money and advertising, and both sides racing toward Election Day with no sign that the final margin will be comfortable for either one. The next test is simple enough to name and hard enough to win — whether the early Democratic edge becomes a result, or whether Lombardo’s ground game and spending can still hold it off.
