A new NBC News poll puts Democrats ahead of Republicans 52% to 45% in the race for control of Congress, a seven-point margin that arrives just days before the midterm elections. The same survey shows Donald Trump’s disapproval rating at 60%, the highest NBC News has recorded across both of his terms.
That is why Kornacki is drawing search interest now: the numbers offer a quick read on how voters are feeling before ballots are counted. Nearly two-thirds said they want a change in the direction Trump has been leading the country, and 50% said they want a great deal of change. At the same time, 70% of registered voters ranked their interest in voting in the midterms as a 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale, a sign that turnout could stay high even if voters are divided on what comes next.
The poll also found a broader sour mood that helps explain the Democratic edge. For the first time in NBC News polling history, more voters said they were dissatisfied with their personal finances than satisfied, with 51% unhappy and 49% satisfied. Sixty-four percent said Trump has fallen short of their expectations as president, including one-third of his own supporters, which suggests the Republican problem is not only opposition from Democrats but disappointment inside the coalition that backed him.
That is the friction point in the race: around half of voters viewed both parties negatively ahead of the midterm elections. The lead for Democrats may reflect that dissatisfaction with Republicans more than a wave of enthusiasm for Democrats themselves, which makes the headline margin real but not simple. In other words, the poll captures a country that is ready for change, but not necessarily convinced about the alternative.
On Tuesday morning in Iowa and Illinois, voters were already acting on that mood. Polls in Iowa opened at 7 a.m. at the Unitarian Universalist Church in Davenport, where a precinct election official said the site had been busy since the morning. Voters also arrived at Silvis City Hall in Silvis, Illinois, with turnout steady, while lines formed at Bethany Baptist Church in Moline. Debra Kelly cast her ballot there on Nov. 3, a small but concrete sign that the national numbers were meeting a real line at the door.
Election judges Karen Serieyssol and Mary VandeVoorde were making final preparations at Matthew Lutheran Church in Milan before voting began, and voters were already out while it was still dark. The poll will not decide the midterms, but it does set the terms: Democrats are leading, Trump is underwater, and a sizable share of the electorate seems to be voting less for one party than against the way things are going now.
