Adam Hamilton moved ahead of Roger Marshall in the final Emerson College Polling survey of Kansas voters, taking 49% support to the Republican incumbent’s 45% in a late October snapshot of the race for U.S. Senate. When undecided voters were asked who they lean toward, Hamilton’s edge widened to 50% to 47%.
The timing is why the numbers are drawing attention now. Emerson College Polling conducted the survey from October 26-28, 2026, just before the 2026 Midterm Elections, and the result gives Kansas readers a fresh read on a race that could still tighten once ballots are cast. For anyone following Nate Silver-style Senate math, it is the kind of late poll that can move expectations without settling the outcome.
Hamilton’s lead also comes with movement underneath it. Since September, he rose from 45% to 49%, while Marshall climbed from 43% to 45%, so both candidates gained ground even as the Democrat opened a four-point gap. Spencer Kimball said the margin between Hamilton and Marshall matches the support for Libertarian candidate David Graham on the ballot, which is another way of saying the race sits inside a narrow band rather than a blowout.
That narrowness matters because 3% of voters said they backed Graham and 3% were still undecided. In a field that tight, those voters can erase the gap fast, especially when the leaners already push Marshall closer to Hamilton. Kimball also said independents break for Hamilton 59% to 25%, and that support for Hamilton among independents has risen 17 points since last month, a sign that the late shift is not coming from everywhere at once.
The broader poll suggests Kansas voters are sorting the race through national and kitchen-table concerns. President Trump’s job approval stood at 45% among Kansas likely voters, while 51% disapproved. The economy led the issue list at 44%, followed by healthcare at 15%, threats to democracy at 13%, immigration at 7% and education at 6%. Those numbers do not settle the Senate contest, but they do show the political climate in which Hamilton is trying to hold his lead and Marshall is trying to close it.
The final question is not whether Hamilton has the better number today. It is whether a four-point lead, built in a poll with a 3.5-point credibility interval, survives a ballot that still has room for movement. The answer will come on Election Day, when the leaners and the undecided stop being a percentage and become votes.
