Typhoon CHAMPI regained strength to level 16 on October 19, with gusts above level 17, after weakening overnight on October 18 and through the morning. By 1 PM, it was still far out at about 14.3 degrees north and 138.5 degrees east, some 1,700 km east-southeast of Luzón and more than 2,000 km southeast of Taiwan.
That makes the storm a live search today because the recovery came fast and the track remains unsettled. In the next 24 hours, CHAMPI was expected to move mainly west-northwest and could again reach level 17 with gusts beyond that mark, a pace that keeps pressure on forecast maps as the system stays over open water for now.
By the afternoon of October 22, CHAMPI was still holding between levels 16 and 17 with gusts above level 17, even as it sat about 5,000 km east-southeast of Taiwan and the sea surface cooled to 27 to 28 degrees Celsius from the night of October 22. That cooling matters because a typhoon fed by warmer water can lose part of its energy as conditions change, but CHAMPI had enough strength left to remain a major system while it drifted toward a new steering pattern.
The forecast split is the point that matters most. The Japanese weather agency expects CHAMPI to make landfall in Taiwan around October 24 at about level 15, still with gusts above level 17. The Chinese and U.S. weather agencies do not expect landfall in Taiwan and instead place the storm north of the island toward Fujian and Zhejiang, while Taiwan's weather agency sees it heading for waters north of Taiwan and Hong Kong's forecast sends it past the north of Taiwan before turning toward mainland China.
Even with those differences, the common thread is that none of the forecasts puts CHAMPI on a path toward the East Sea, and one national forecast assigns only a low 80% chance that it enters the northeastern part of that sea. For people watching Taiwan and the wider region, the unresolved question is not whether CHAMPI remains dangerous — it does — but whether its center crosses the island or slips by just to the north before turning away.
