A new AARP poll released Sept. 10 gave James Talarico a 48% to 44% lead over Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race, a result that puts the contest in strikingly close reach statewide. The survey of 895 likely Texas voters, taken Aug. 30 through Sept. 1 and carrying a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent, showed a race that is still very much in play.
The headline number helps explain why the search interest around Talarico leading Paxton in survey has picked up now. The Democratic candidate was on the ground Sunday in Houston for a rally at TSU in the Third Ward, while Paxton was set for Beaumont on Monday at noon as part of his Protecting the Texas Promise Tour. Both men are trying to turn a polling snapshot into momentum before voters decide whether the statewide lead holds.
The split underneath the statewide result is what gives the survey its weight. Paxton led Talarico 53% to 40% among voters 50 and older, even as Talarico stayed ahead overall. That older group matters because 84% of voters age 50 and older said they were extremely motivated to vote, compared with 70% of voters under 50. In other words, Paxton is stronger in the part of the electorate that is more likely to show up.
That is the friction point inside the poll. Talarico’s overall lead suggests his message is reaching enough voters across Texas to edge ahead, but Paxton’s advantage with older voters points to a base that is both larger in its commitment and more durable at the ballot box. The numbers do not cancel each other out; they show two different elections inside the same race.
For now, the poll says the Texas Senate race is competitive enough to give Talarico a narrow statewide edge while leaving Paxton with a clear lane among older voters. The next test is whether that age divide hardens or shrinks as both candidates keep campaigning, with Paxton scheduled to continue in Beaumont on Monday and Talarico already pressing his case in Houston.
