The Farmers’ Almanac is leaning toward a wetter winter for New England, adding more precipitation to a season already shaped by a record-challenging El Niño. That puts rain, ice and slush closer to the center of the forecast than a clean stretch of snow.
The timing matters because long-range winter forecasts are landing before December, when residents of New England are still deciding what kind of winter to expect. In the broader forecast discussion, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmers’ Almanac are being weighed against one another, each offering a different read on the same season.
The weather pattern behind the outlook is not subtle. The Boston Globe says El Niño is expected to push New England warmer than usual, and that the northern half or northern third of the United States will likely run much warmer than average this winter. For New England, that usually means fewer days when snow is the main form of precipitation and more opportunities for mixed weather instead.
That is where the Farmers’ Almanac lands. Its outlook is a bit warmer for the Northeast and leans more toward precipitation for New England, with more coastal storms in the mix. The region is not being described as locked into a deep freeze; it is being described as one where moisture may win out more often than cold.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac points in a different direction. It suggests most of New England will see a mild and dry winter, though portions of Central New England may still see more snow and colder conditions. In that forecast, the rain-snow line may sit closer to Worcester and Providence than between Boston and the Cape, a small shift with big consequences for what falls and where it sticks.
That split is not random. Both almanacs say they rely heavily on solar activity and climatology in preparing their long-term seasonal outlooks, even if their methods remain proprietary. The Old Farmers’ Almanac, founded in Dublin, N.H., in 1792, has used that formula for generations, and the Farmers’ Almanac follows its own private approach.
The practical question is not which forecast sounds more dramatic. It is which one will come closest once the season starts to unfold. For now, the Farmers’ Almanac is betting that New England’s winter will be wetter than white, and that is the version of the season residents are being asked to plan around before December arrives.
