Republicans heading into the midterm elections are growing more anxious that Donald Trump is becoming a drag on the party, and some candidates in tight races are trying to make themselves look less tied to him. Don Bacon said he fears the president’s numbers are “a ball and chain” that will be hard to overcome.
The alarm is showing up now because the party is trying to lock down its message before the vote, and because Trump is not helping by urging Republicans to run on his own record. He said last week that he would “campaign like I did for myself,” adding that some people like him more than they like the party, even as several Republicans in competitive districts skip the GOP’s midterm convention in Dallas next week.
Bacon, who said he is not running for re-election in his battleground district, said he is worried that Republicans have lost a lot of swing voters. He said tariffs are not popular in the Midwest, that Ukraine polls at 70 percent, and that Nebraskans do not like chaos, name calling or treating allies badly. In his view, those are not side issues. They are the kind of habits that can turn away the voters Republicans need most.
For the party, the problem is not just Trump’s style. It is the gap between the way he sees the race and the way some Republicans do. He wants the midterms to be about his record and his personal appeal. Many candidates appear to think survival depends on the opposite: keeping Trump at arm’s length and talking about local concerns instead.
That explains why some Republican candidates have started trimming his name from their campaigns. A growing number have deleted references to Trump from their websites, while others are mixing praise with distance. Mike Lawler aired a digital ad last week that included Trump calling him a “pain in the ass” over tax deductions, and Tom Barrett has run Facebook ads highlighting votes to limit Trump’s war powers in Iran. Both men have also campaigned with Trump in recent months, which captures the split that now defines the party’s midterm problem.
The pressure is not limited to individual races. Some Republicans are still angry that Trump backed Ken Paxton over John Cornyn, even though Cornyn was one of the strongest fundraisers for the GOP in the upper chamber. The party is now having to pour money into Texas because polling shows James Talarico has real momentum going into November, and Paxton has been seen as absent from the campaign trail. That is a costly reminder that Trump’s choices can reverberate far beyond the candidate he actually endorses.
The broader warning comes from the numbers. A /Ipsos survey last week found that only 35 percent of Republicans said they strongly support Trump. If that level of enthusiasm holds, it helps explain why vulnerable Republicans are moving toward local branding and away from the national fight Trump wants to wage. Kevin Madden said most congressional candidates are better served by stepping out of the national political jet stream and reinforcing local credentials, local messages and local issues than trying to argue for re-election from Dallas.
The midterm convention next week will show whether that strategy is becoming the party’s default or whether Trump can still pull Republican candidates back into his orbit. For now, the clearest answer is that the candidates closest to the hardest races are already acting like his name is something to manage, not an asset to brag about.
