The Padres open their homestand against the New York Yankees with the pitching plan partly mapped out and one game still unfinished. Max Fried, Carlos Rodon and an unnamed Yankees starter are lined up for the series, while the Padres turn to Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray and Michael King.
That makes this a search-worthy night for anyone tracking Yankees Vs Padres, because the matchup now carries both playoff pressure and an injury clock. Aaron Judge could return from his rib injury as soon as next week, and the Yankees arrive at 80-60, second in the AL East and three games behind the Rays, while the Padres are 73-67, third in the NL West and trying to stay inside the NL wild-card picture.
The numbers make the series feel tighter than the records suggest. The Yankees have won six of their last 10 games and still own a 4½-game lead over the Red Sox as the AL’s top wild-card team, but their offense has been uneven since the All-Star break with a.673 OPS, the third worst in the majors. Their pitching has carried more weight, with a 2.93 ERA in the second half, best in the majors, and Fried is expected to work in a piggy-back with Will Warren after throwing 63 pitches in his first game back from a bone bruise in his elbow. Fried allowed one run in 3⅔ innings in that start on Saturday, and he has a 2.11 ERA in seven regular-season starts against the Padres.
The Padres are dealing with a different kind of imbalance. They have lost seven of their last nine games, yet they posted a 2.88 ERA over that stretch and still sit only a half-game behind the Diamondbacks for the NL’s third wild-card spot, with the Marlins 2½ games back. FanGraphs.com gives them a 40.8% chance to reach the postseason. Their offense has been steadier than the results: a.762 OPS since the All-Star break, third best in the majors, though a recent 1-5 road trip brought a.654 OPS and left them ranked 24th in that span.
That split is what makes the pitching matchups matter so much. Buehler has been better after a rough July, posting a 3.16 ERA in six August starts after a 9.82 ERA in July, but he has a 4.15 ERA in 14 home starts and a 5.23 ERA in 13 road starts. His only regular-season start against the Yankees was a loss last year. Rodon, meanwhile, is 4-3 with a 3.20 ERA but has not completed five innings in three starts since missing a month to elbow inflammation, even though he owns a 2.27 ERA in five career starts against the Padres. Ray brings an 11-7 record and a 3.14 ERA, but he has a 3.42 ERA in five starts since the trade to San Diego, and the Padres are 2-3 in those outings. King has been the steadiest of the bunch, with a 3.11 ERA and five straight quality starts, including a 1.71 ERA over that run.
Boone has not named a starter for the finale, which leaves the last chapter of the series incomplete for now. If Judge returns next week, the Yankees could soon have another middle-order piece back while this series is still fresh in the standings, and that timing may matter as much as any single matchup over the next few days.
