MMAOddsBreaker has put its 2026 staff picks back on the board, and the UFC Shanghai card already has one bout drawing a clear line through the panel. In Fight #4, most of the analysts landed on Xiao Long, while Nick Kalikas and Big Marcel went the other way and took Nuzzi.
The picks matter because MMAOddsBreaker says it will track every UFC event all year, with eight analysts contributing each week. That gives readers a running snapshot of where the staff stands before the fights begin, and it puts Kalikas in the middle of the conversation again after he won the 2025 pool with a 348-166 record, good for 67.7 percent.
This is not a fight report or a results story. It is a table of staff picks, and that is what makes the split in Fight #4 worth a closer look. Adam Martin, Cole Shelton, Mike’s MMA Picks, James Lynch, Zain Bando and Chris White all chose Xiao Long, leaving Kalikas and Big Marcel as the two voices on Nuzzi. When one side gets that much support and still does not have a clean sweep, the disagreement becomes part of the story.
The broader picture is even tighter in 2026, where Mike’s MMA Picks and Adam Martin were tied for first at 246-101, or 70.9 percent, while Kalikas opened the year as the previous season’s winner and one of the most closely watched picks-makers on the board. That makes the UFC Shanghai sheet less about a single line item and more about how the group reads a card when the analysts are trying to stay ahead of each other, one fight at a time.
What readers do not get from the table is the fight itself. Fight #4 is identified only as Xiao Long against Nuzzi, and UFC Shanghai is named as the event without a date or bout breakdown attached to it. The next thing to watch is whether the rest of the UFC Shanghai card keeps the same pattern of consensus and small breaks, because this first split already shows where the staff believes the sharpest edge may be.
