The Sun kicked off a fresh round of space weather with an X1.1 solar flare on June 30, then followed it with 10 M-class solar flares in the next 24 hours. Several of those eruptions sent coronal mass ejections toward Earth, and at least one CME from July 1 appears to have an Earth-directed component.
That is why aurora watchers are checking the forecast now. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center continued to call for moderate G2 geomagnetic storm conditions around 8-11 p.m. EDT tonight, with minor G1 storm conditions for much of July 3. If the skies are dark and clear, the northern lights could reach parts of the northern U.S., including New York and Idaho, around the July 4 weekend.
Tamitha Skov described the Sun as a “Machine-gun sun” and wrote that more than five solar storms are on their way to Earth, with at least three offering good chances for aurora displays. She said the first storm could arrive before 8 a.m. EDT on July 3, and that G2 or stronger geomagnetic storm conditions are possible if the incoming CMEs carry a favorable magnetic orientation.
The catch is that the forecast still is not fully settled. NOAA and NASA model predictions do not show all the storms yet, even though several eruptions are already moving toward Earth, and the strength of the geomagnetic response will depend on how those CMEs line up and whether their magnetic fields point the right way when they arrive. That leaves the coming hours as the key test: the Sun has already done the firing, and forecasters now have to see whether Earth gets a glancing set of hits or a cleaner aurora-making push. For readers tracking the display, the next important window runs from tonight through July 3, with the best chance of a brighter show hanging on the details of each CME rather than the number of flares alone.
