A First Warn is in place Sunday evening for rain and storms, with scattered waves expected to roll through the region before the bulk of the activity fades after 10 p.m. Southeastern counties remain under a low level 1/5 severe risk, and a Flood Watch stays in effect through Monday as water over the roadways is possible.
For people watching ky3, the timing matters because the weather does not give the region much of a break. Monday begins with an isolated 20% chance of rain, then pop-up showers and storms are possible from 1 p.m. to 5 p.m. before another system drops in from the northwest Monday night with a cluster of rain and storms. In the southwestern counties, the severe risk remains low, but strong winds and hail are the main concerns after dark.
The bigger concern arrives quickly after that. Tuesday is expected to turn dry, hot and sunny, with highs around 91 and heat index values near 104 or 105 degrees. Wednesday is expected to look much the same, with another high near 91 and heat index values back between 104 and 105, even as the chance for afternoon rain and storms rises to 30 percent. Thursday brings a 40 percent chance for afternoon rain and storm activity, highs in the upper 80s, and a feel that still reaches the low to mid 90s.
That stretch lands just as Fan Fest is set to kick off Thursday, making the forecast more than a routine summer update. The heat is being described as the first wave of intense heat of the year, and it comes on top of repeated rain chances nearly every day as the new week begins. For outdoor plans, the real problem is not one hazard alone but the way they stack: storms tonight, more rain Monday, dangerous heat Tuesday and Wednesday, and another shot at afternoon storms Thursday.
The severe threat is expected to weaken as the evening goes on, but it is not gone entirely. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in the severe weather area, and flooding remains possible through Monday. After that, the pattern starts to ease late in the week, with temperatures slipping into the low to mid 80s, humidity easing and only spotty to scattered rain chances left behind. What is not clear yet is how long this stop-and-start pattern will last once the heat breaks.
