Sherrod Brown is back in front in Ohio’s Senate race. A survey released Wednesday found the Democrat leading Jon Husted 53% to 45%, an eight-point margin that sits outside the poll’s sampling error and gives Brown a new edge as he tries to return to the U.S. Senate.
The number is being watched now because it lands against a sharp slide in Donald Trump’s standing in the state. Ohio voters viewed Trump negatively by 15 points, with 42% favorable and 57% unfavorable, a drop of more than 20 points from his November 2024 rating in the same survey, when he was 52% favorable and 46% unfavorable. Trump carried Ohio by more than 11 percentage points in 2024, but the latest reading suggests the state’s political ground has shifted enough to make a Brown comeback look plausible.
Brown’s edge was not built on one group alone. He drew 98% support from Democrats, but also won 31% of non-MAGA Republicans and 13% of all Republicans. He was ahead by 33 points among voters under 35, 18 points among independents and 14 points among women. Non-white voters favored him by 58 points, while the race was tied among White voters at 49% apiece. Among voters 45 and older, the candidates were nearly even at 49% to 48%.
Husted still has obvious strengths. He was backed by 86% of Republicans and led White evangelical Christians by 32 points, rural voters by 11 points and White men without a college degree by 7 points. But Brown’s broad appeal is enough, for now, to offset those advantages in a race where the state’s partisan lean has not stopped shifting under the pressure of Trump’s numbers.
The poll also shows why the contest may stay unsettled. About 73% of Brown supporters and 69% of Husted supporters said they were certain of their choice, yet about one in four voters said they could still change their mind. More Democrats than Republicans, 82% to 76%, said they are extremely or very motivated to vote in November. Brown supporters said they were voting mainly for Brown rather than against Husted by 68% to 30%, while Husted supporters said they were mainly for Husted rather than against Brown by 58% to 39%.
The personal reservations are there too. Some 39% of Ohioans said they were concerned Brown is too liberal, including 13% of his own supporters. A larger share, 46%, said they were worried Husted is too close to Trump, including 10% of his supporters. That split captures the race as it stands today: Brown is trying to reclaim a Senate seat he narrowly lost in 2024, Husted is defending the seat he was appointed to after JD Vance became vice president, and Trump’s fading approval in Ohio may be making the difference between a Republican hold and a Democratic return.
For now, the latest reading says Brown has the upper hand. The unanswered question is whether he can keep it once voters who are still undecided make up their minds.
