Sir Steve Webb has warned that scrapping the state pension triple lock now would trigger a retirement disaster, after new figures from a Freedom of Information request suggested millions more people could be left short of income later in life. The former pensions minister said abolishing the policy at this point would make Britain’s retirement picture worse, not better.
The warning lands as the triple lock is being searched and debated again because a new Pensions Commission is expected to look at how the state pension should be set for the 2030s. Webb, who submitted the FOI request to the Department for Work and Pensions, said he hoped any review would come up with reforms for the next decade rather than force a sudden break with the current system.
The DWP response found that moving to an earnings-only link would leave around 19 million people without enough income in retirement, more than four million higher than current projections. If the state pension were linked only to inflation, the number of people at risk would rise to 26 million, a figure described as more than three quarters of the working-age population.
Webb said the triple lock could not last forever, but argued that ending it now would be reckless. He described retirement saving in Britain as having “all the features of a slow-motion car crash” and said cutting the state pension’s link would make matters worse. In his view, there is still “a powerful argument” for keeping the triple lock in the short to medium term because private pensions are not doing enough to fill the gap.
That is where the policy fight sharpens. The triple lock is defended as a shield against poverty in old age, yet it is also criticised as too costly and unfair on younger taxpayers who will help fund it. Webb said the weakness of private provision makes an abrupt change especially dangerous, particularly for women, who are most at risk of reaching retirement with only modest private pension income on top of the state pension.
That problem has been building for years. Traditional final salary workplace schemes in the private sector have faded away, and defined contribution pots have had limited time to grow since auto-enrolment began in 2012. Webb said many people nearing retirement still depend heavily on the state pension, which is why he warned: “We simply cannot pull the rug from beneath them.”
The next step now rests with the commission. It can recommend a slower redesign of the state pension system for the 2030s, but Webb’s figures make one point hard to ignore: if ministers move too fast on the triple lock pension, they risk trading a difficult bill today for a much larger retirement problem tomorrow.
