Australia’s ski season is still 10 days away, but the first signs of winter are already stirring over the south, with a system expected to move through the Aussie Alps over the end of the coming weekend and bring small amounts of snow. The colder air behind it should also give resorts a first real chance to start snowmaking.
Late in the weekend, a low was expected to deepen to the southwest of the country before tracking toward the mountains from around Tuesday. Some models show it becoming quite deep and driving strong winds across southern regions, while also offering a better chance of snow across the Alps next week.
The setup matters because it is arriving at the start of the season, when temperatures may still be too marginal for snowfall below the higher elevations. The best-case outcome for the week ahead is modest natural snow, paired with cool enough conditions for snowmaking to get a foothold.
The outlook is being watched closely because Mountainwatch said the broader pattern still points toward an El Niño year. The group said there was a good consensus that the season is heading toward an El Niño event, with potential for a strong to very strong one to develop. That view lines up with NOAA, which has put the chance of an El Niño event emerging in May-July at 82% and the chance of El Niño conditions in December-February at 96%.
Mountainwatch framed the current pre-season picture against 2015, when a strong El Niño developed alongside a positive IOD event. That winter began with a fairly traditional ENSO pattern and not much excitement on the slopes, before a resurgence in July and August brought a few strong storms that did most of the work building the snowpack. Spencer’s Creek eventually reached a peak depth of 150cm.
This time, the early signal is less about a big dump and more about whether the Alps can bank enough cold, workable weather to start the season on solid ground. If the stronger low does reach the mountains as some models suggest, next week could deliver the first meaningful test of how much natural snow this winter can produce.
