Roy Cooper is opening up a lead over Michael Whatley in the North Carolina Senate race, a new Harper Polling/Carolina Journal survey found, giving Democrats fresh evidence that the contest could be competitive even before the campaign money starts to flow in earnest. The poll, conducted May 10-11 among 600 likely voters, showed Cooper at 49.8 percent support to Whatley’s 38.7 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The numbers also show how differently the two men are being seen by voters. Cooper had 49.8 percent favorable views and 38.5 percent unfavorable views, while Whatley’s favorable rating was 25.4 percent and his unfavorable rating was 21.9 percent. Another 11.7 percent said they had never heard of or had no opinion of Cooper, compared with 52.7 percent for Whatley, a gap that helps explain why the race is still being defined by recognition as much as persuasion.
The result matters because North Carolina is one of the most closely watched battlegrounds on the map for the 2026 midterm elections, and Senate races there have often been decided by the candidate who can better hold the center. Democrats have not won a Senate seat in the state since 2008, and incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis is not running for reelection. Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee, is trying to keep the seat in GOP hands while Cooper, the former governor, tries to become the party’s first Senate winner in the state in nearly two decades.
The new survey follows a steady tightening of the race over time, even as Cooper has remained ahead in each reading from the same pollster. In September 2025, the firm showed Cooper with 46.1 percent support and Whatley with 41.9 percent. By November 2025, Cooper was at 47.3 percent and Whatley at 38.6 percent. In March 2026, Cooper stood at 48.9 percent and Whatley at 41.1 percent. The latest poll extends that pattern, but not by enough to suggest the contest is settled.
That uncertainty is part of what has made the race so difficult to read. In North Carolina, 41.5 percent of voters approved of Donald Trump, while 56.6 percent disapproved, a split that underscores the state’s competitive politics. Nationally, 39.1 percent of respondents said the country is heading in the right direction, while 57.7 percent said it is heading in the wrong direction. Those numbers point to a restless electorate, but they do not yet tell either party how the Senate contest will break once advertising, turnout efforts and candidate messaging fully kick in.
DJ Griffin, whose name was attached to the pollster’s commentary, argued that Cooper’s early edge reflects name recognition more than a locked-in advantage. Griffin said it was striking that a career politician with universal name ID is leading six months before an election in which no money has been spent on ads yet. He also said Cooper has underperformed polls in each of his past elections, and added that, as polling suggests this week, the race is still neck and neck as the home stretch approaches. Griffin said the firm expects Whatley to keep closing the name-ID gap and to emerge victorious in November.
That is the core tension in the race: Cooper is ahead, but Whatley is still largely unknown to many voters, and that gives Republicans room to argue the contest has not fully begun. For now, the poll shows a Republican nominee starting from behind in a state that has backed Republicans in presidential and Senate races even as it has favored Democrats in recent gubernatorial contests. The answer to the question this poll raises is straightforward enough: Cooper leads today, but the race is still open because Whatley has time to introduce himself before voters make the final call.
