Temperatures could climb to 24C in parts of England next week, but not before a cooler stretch keeps most of the country below 20C through Friday. Weather maps from the ECMWF model point to a four-day warm spell starting on May 21, with the best day for widespread heat expected on May 24.
The warmest signal is strongest in the south-east. Highs of 23C are possible there on May 21, with 20C across much of central England. On May 22, the maps show 24C on the cards in the south-east, including London, while other southern parts of England could reach 22C and central England 21C. By May 23, southern England could see 23C and the Midlands 21C. Northern Ireland and Scotland are expected to stay cooler than England throughout the period.
That makes the timing notable. The Met Office forecast for May 16 to May 25 says changeable and at times unsettled conditions are likely to dominate through the middle of the month, with periods of rain or showers, some of them heavy, for many places. It also says temperatures are initially likely to be cooler than average before tending to recover, with conditions possibly becoming rather warm by the end of the period, especially in the south. For Monday to Friday this week, the Met Office says temperatures are not expected to rise to 20C anywhere in the country.
The contrast between the two outlooks is the key issue for anyone planning ahead. The official forecast leans on a wetter, more variable middle of May, while the ECMWF model points to a brief but notable burst of warmth later in the month. On that model, May 24 stands out most clearly, with highs of 22C and 23C possible across a wide swathe of England from the south coast up to Yorkshire, and 35 counties in England and Wales potentially seeing 20C or above across the four days.
For now, the answer to the bank holiday weather question is mixed rather than settled: a cool, showery week first, then a decent chance of a short-lived warm-up beginning May 21 and peaking around May 24, especially in the south.
