Karen Bass is leading Latino voters in Los Angeles’ mayor’s race, according to a new poll that underscores how central the community could be on June 2. The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey, co-sponsored by The Times, found Bass with 29% support among Latino voters, far ahead of her rivals.
Spencer Pratt drew 16% support in the same poll, while Rae Huang had 14%, Nithya Raman 9% and Adam Miller 3%. Latinos make up nearly 37% of the city’s electorate, a share that makes the bloc one of the most important prizes in the race even before ballots are counted.
That is not new terrain for Bass. A UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs poll in April also showed her with a wide lead, and in March she launched Latinos con Bass in Lincoln Park as part of an outreach effort aimed squarely at Spanish-speaking voters. On Friday night, Raman was at a happy hour at Distrito Catorce bar in Boyle Heights pitching her campaign to local voters, a reminder that the race is still moving through neighborhoods where personal contact can matter as much as television spots.
The Latino vote has long been treated as decisive in Los Angeles, but it has also been difficult to turn out in primaries. In 2022, Latinos made up 35% of the electorate in the mayoral election but accounted for less than a quarter of the turnout, even though overall turnout rose across all demographic groups and the Latino share stayed the same. That gap is why campaigns are airing ads and social media posts in Spanish, visiting Latino-majority neighborhoods and chasing endorsements that can help break through.
“We need a mayor who can communicate directly with the Spanish-speaking community,” said Albert Orozco, capturing the practical test facing every candidate in the race. Fernando Guerra put it even more bluntly: “Whoever wins the Latino vote will win the election.”
For Bass, the current poll suggests a real opening, and Matt Barreto said she has a chance to lock it down with a strong primary showing. “This is hers for the taking,” he said. But the same dynamic that helps her also raises the stakes across the field. Michael Trujillo said the governor’s race, with prominent Latino candidates Xavier Becerra and Antonio Villaraigosa, could push turnout higher this year. “You might have a historic turnout of Latinos... in L.A. because of the energy in that race,” he said, adding, “So the question to the candidates running for mayor is: Who’s best positioned to ride that historic wave?”
That makes the contest less about whether Latino voters matter than about which candidate can meet them where they are — in Spanish, in the neighborhoods and in the final stretch before June 2. Bass is ahead now, and the race is whether anyone can catch her before that vote is cast.
