Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing on Tuesday for a state visit four days after Donald Trump left China, a tightly timed diplomatic move that underscored how central the China-Russia relationship has become for both sides. It is Putin’s 25th visit to China, according to Chinese state media, and comes as Beijing and Moscow mark 30 years since they signed a strategic partnership agreement and 25 years since their treaty of good-neighbourliness and friendly cooperation.
Putin said on the eve of the trip that China-Russia relations had reached “an unprecedented level,” while also pointing to soaring bilateral trade and the near-total use of roubles and yuan in settlements instead of the US dollar. He also highlighted the countries’ mutual visa-free policies for travellers, a sign that the relationship now extends well beyond summit politics and energy contracts.
The visit matters because it comes while Russia is making little progress on the battlefield in Ukraine this year and facing growing economic pressure that has increased its dependence on China. Beijing has not joined western sanctions on Russia, and trade between the two countries has deepened sharply since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with China buying more than $367bn of Russian fossil fuels, according to data collected by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
Analysts are watching for fresh energy announcements, especially around the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. The project under discussion would stretch 1,600 miles, or 2,600km, run through Mongolia and add 50bn cubic metres of gas capacity to Russia’s exports to China. That would give Moscow another major route east at a moment when its western energy options remain constrained.
Beijing is also using the visit to project confidence. William Yang, an analyst, said hosting two of the world’s most powerful leaders within days shows China’s growing confidence in its place and standing in the world. He added that Beijing likely wants to remind Trump that it has other solid and robust relationships it can count on, so Washington cannot easily isolate or harm China if it tries to. On Tuesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said the friendship between China and Russia would be further deepened and more deeply rooted in people’s hearts.
The numbers around the relationship are striking, but the friction is just as important. Moscow wants more Chinese support as its war economy strains, while Beijing wants the benefits of a stronger partnership without being pulled into Russia’s confrontation with the West. The next signal will come not from the speeches but from whether the two sides leave Beijing with a concrete energy deal, and that is what diplomats and energy markets will be watching most closely.
