The Giants and Diamondbacks meet with both teams still looking like scrappy clubs that have not quite put it together, but Arizona arrives with a few measurable edges that could matter over a series. The Diamondbacks have hit 40 homers to the Giants' 37, own a 95 wRC+ at the plate and have gotten 2.2 fWAR from their pitching staff, just ahead of San Francisco's 2.0.
That gap is not huge, but it is real. Arizona's relievers have been better at keeping runners off base by 1.75 BB/9, and the defense has been a more decisive separator, grading at +5.5 Defensive Runs Above Average to the Giants' -5.5. That 10-run swing has Arizona ranked sixth in MLB in Defensive Runs Above Average, while San Francisco's fielding has lagged behind in the kind of close game where one extra out can decide a night.
The biggest pitching names in the series are not all available. The Giants will not see Eduardo Rodriguez or Michael Soroka, both of whom have given Arizona useful innings. Rodriguez has a 2.53 ERA, though the underlying number beneath it sits at 3.85 ERA, a reminder that the left-hander's strong surface results have not fully matched his broader profile. Soroka has been even steadier with a 3.49 ERA. Rodriguez's path to this point has been unusual: he was a hot commodity at the 2023 trade deadline until he made it clear he did not want to be moved, then Arizona signed him the following offseason after his first two years of the deal produced a 5+ ERA.
What Arizona has instead is a rotation that still asks plenty of questions. Ryne Nelson comes in at 5.40 ERA, but he has been a problem for the Giants before, going 2-0 against them with a 3.05 ERA in 44.1 innings. He has also allowed nine homers in nine starts. Zac Gallen, once the ace in the room, carries a 5.02 ERA, while Merrill Kelly, 37, sits at 5.91 ERA after a complete game in Colorado in which he gave up a solo homer and a start before that that went seven innings of one-run ball at home against the Mets.
San Francisco's side is not built on certainty either. Robbie Ray, Landen Roupp and Trevor McDonald have all given the Giants solid stretches, but the overall lineup has been about 10% worse than league average, leaving little margin when the pitching slips. Arizona's offense has its own holes: Corbin Carroll has opened the season at an MVP-caliber level, Nolan Arenado has remained a steady threat, but Ketel Marte is still 20% below league average, Gabriel Moreno is running about 25% worse than league average, and Geraldo Perdomo, after backing up his 7-WAR 2025 season, has started 2026 with a sub-100 wRC+ and minus-100 points of slug. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has a 61 wRC+ on the season, though he has shown a pulse lately, going 6-for-his-last-17 with two doubles and a homer.
The series therefore feels less like a showdown between finished teams than a test of which flawed club can cover its weak spots better for three or four days. Arizona has the cleaner defensive profile and the slightly stronger run-prevention numbers; the Giants have enough pitching moments to stay in games. That makes the difference likely to come down to which team can turn its few good swings into something lasting, and which one keeps making the extra mistake that shows up late on the scoreboard.
