Humidity is climbing from central into eastern Kansas, and the air will feel more oppressive through the weekend and into early next week as afternoon highs stay in the 90s until Monday.
For Wichita, the forecast carries a 20% chance of showers and storms tonight, with a high of 94 on the next day in the forecast and another 40% chance of showers and storms on Monday before the temperature drops to 76 on Tuesday. The pattern is part of a broader stretch of warm, sticky weather before a stronger front advances over the state on Monday or Tuesday, bringing a cooldown behind it.
Today’s biggest near-term concern is another chance for isolated severe storms this evening from central into southwest Kansas. Damaging winds above 60 MPH are the main threat, and that risk matters because storms that do form can turn destructive quickly in the hot, unstable air. Winds will stay strong each day leading up to the frontal passage, and fire danger will be high especially on Sunday and Monday.
Saturday is more uncertain, but not any less serious. A cap over southern Kansas is expected to be harder to break, which could keep storms from developing in many places. If that cap gives way, any storm could become severe quickly and remain isolated. The better chance for scattered storms will be over Northwest Kansas into Southwest Nebraska, with areas closer to the Nebraska state line having a better shot at severe weather because temperatures aloft will be cooler. On that day, all forms of severe weather are possible, including tornadoes, hail greater than 2 inches in diameter and winds in excess of 60 MPH.
Sunday stays highly conditional across much of the viewing area because hotter temperatures aloft will still be in place. Nebraska is expected to get the brunt of the worst severe weather that day, while the rest of the region remains dependent on whether storms can break through the warm layer overhead. The setup is less about a widespread outbreak than a narrow window where the atmosphere either stays capped or turns dangerous fast.
By Monday, the atmosphere becomes more volatile. Moisture will be rich, instability will be significantly higher and upper-level support will be stronger. Storms are expected to develop in Northwest Kansas, and storms ahead of the dryline and cold front will bring a risk for tornadoes, extremely large hail and damaging winds in the heart of the state. Tuesday’s front should advance enough to push storms out of the region, and storm chances should drop by midweek before returning heading into the following weekend.
For now, the forecast hinges on two things: whether the cap breaks and how quickly the front moves through. If either happens at the wrong time, Kansas could go from muggy heat to severe weather in a hurry.
