Social Security recipients could be looking at a 2027 cost-of-living adjustment of nearly 4%, according to new estimates released this week. One forecast from the Senior Citizens League put the increase at 3.9%, a projection that would lift the average monthly benefit by $80.77.

That would raise the typical retired worker’s check, which stood at $2,071 in January, to about $2,152. Alex Moore said the projection had been higher than earlier expectations, noting it had generally sat between 2% and 3% during much of 2026.

The estimate landed as inflation has started to show more pressure in recent months. The Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 3.3% in March 2026 and 3.8% in April, while seniors already received a 2026 COLA of 2.8%. On Tuesday, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget separately forecast a 2027 COLA of 3.8%, putting its estimate close to the Senior Citizens League’s view.

The 2027 adjustment is still months away from being locked in. It will be based on inflation from July through September and will not be set until October, so the final figure can still move if prices keep changing over the summer.

Still, the latest projections point in the same direction: a larger benefit bump, but one that may not be enough to make up for recent losses. The Senior Citizens League has found that Social Security benefits have lost almost 14% of their value over the last decade because the inflation index does not fully match seniors’ spending patterns.

Moore said rising oil prices could keep pushing costs higher as the year goes on. “As we go throughout the year, rising oil prices have the potential to worsen the situation,” he said. He added that higher energy prices make it more expensive to farm crops, transport goods and services, and run factory machinery, and warned that the inflation now showing up in energy could spread through the economy. “So the inflation we're seeing from rising oil prices right now is likely just the tip of the iceberg, with downstream effects on inflation across the whole economy — and thereby seniors — yet to come,” he said.

The bigger check would also bring a cost on the system itself. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said a higher COLA would worsen Social Security’s shortfall by roughly $300 billion over the next decade and advance the insolvency of the old-age trust fund by three months, from late 2032 to earlier in the year.

For retirees, the immediate issue is simple: whether the inflation picture holds through the summer. If it does, the 2027 Social Security COLA could land close to 4%, adding a little more money to monthly checks but doing so against a backdrop of still-rising prices and a program under greater strain.