Arkansas will host Robert Morris on Wednesday at 7 p.m. at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, with the Razorbacks favored by 28 1/2 points and carrying the far heavier résumé into the matchup. The game will stream on + and SEC Network+, while the local radio call will be on the Razorback Sports Network.
This is the kind of game Arkansas is expected to control if it plays to its strengths. John Calipari wants the Razorbacks to push pace and get into transition, while Robert Morris leans on a slower halfcourt style that tries to drag the game into a different rhythm. Arkansas is ranked No. 19 in the Top 25, while Robert Morris is unranked and sits at No. 222 on KenPom, which helps explain why KenPom gives Arkansas a 98% chance to win.
Calipari has seen this opponent before, and that history is part of why Wednesday is drawing attention. Arkansas beat Robert Morris 79-75 on Dec. 20, 2012, at Bud Walton Arena, and this will be only the second meeting between the programs. It will also be the fourth time Calipari has coached against Robert Morris, with wins in each of his past two games against the Colonials after losing to them in the 2013 NIT first round while at Kentucky. That upset is the reason a spread like 28 1/2 points does not land as cleanly as the rankings suggest.
The contrast between the teams is stark even before the ball goes up. Arkansas finished last season 28-9, won the SEC Tournament and reached its second consecutive NCAA Tournament Sweet 16, then brought back only Billy Richmond from its rotation while adding 10 newcomers, including eight freshmen. Robert Morris, meanwhile, finished 22-11 and reached the Horizon League Tournament semifinals, returning four rotational players in Darius Livingston, Eddie Cook, Samuel Obenjo and Ta’Zir Smith. Calipari is in his third season at Arkansas and 51-24 there, while Andy Toole is in his 17th season at Robert Morris and 274-254 with the school.
There is still room for the upset to exist because styles can compress a game, and Robert Morris has already shown it can make one of Calipari's best teams uncomfortable. But the numbers point hard in one direction this time, from the ranking to the betting line to the computer metrics. If Arkansas plays fast and keeps the game out of Robert Morris' preferred halfcourt grind, the best remaining question is not whether the Razorbacks are favored. It is whether they make the matchup look as lopsided as it reads on paper.
