Jeff Hurd would need to win 50.1% of the remaining vote to catch or overtake Dwayne Romero in Colorado House District 3, a live results race now leaning toward Romero. The gap leaves Hurd with a narrow but very specific path: he has to do better than break even in the ballots still left to count.
That is why Hurd’s race is drawing fresh attention on Election Day, even as the results keep moving through the live election feed. The district has shifted 11.26 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential election, a swing that gives Romero the advantage and explains why Hurd’s climb is steeper than it first appears.
The 50.1% figure matters because it turns the race from a broad political question into a countable one. If Hurd is to reverse the lead, he does not need a comeback in the abstract; he needs a majority of the outstanding vote, and Romero is already ahead. In a contest tracked as live results, that is the difference between a race that is still alive and one that is slipping out of reach.
The comparison to 2024 rests on expected vote, the estimate used once enough of the anticipated ballots are in to make a vote-shift read meaningful in a county. That expected vote is built from early voting information and Election Day reports from county election officials, and it can change as NBC News gathers more information. Source data are provided by The, with projections made by the NBC News Decision Desk.
What remains unresolved is simple: how much of the expected vote is still uncounted in Colorado House District 3. Until that number is clear, Hurd’s 50.1% threshold is the best guide to whether the trailing candidate can still close the gap or whether Romero’s lead will hold.
