Virginia Democrats were voting at a rate 9 to 10 percentage points higher than Republicans on Election Day, according to turnout data reported by G. Elliott Morris at 2:13 p.m. The figures came from State Navigate as polls were still open across Virginia.
The gap matters because it gives an early read on who is showing up while the day is still unfolding, and it comes before live results from the Virginia Department of Elections are expected after the polls close at 7 p.m. Morris’s data also pointed to a strong showing in Henrico County and a lower rate in James City County, suggesting the statewide picture is being shaped unevenly across localities.
Fairfax County, often used as an early benchmark, had reported 6.19% of registered voters casting ballots in person by 9 a.m. and 27.9% voting early, for a total turnout of 34.09%. At the same point a year earlier, Fairfax had 6.2% same-day turnout and 23.9% early turnout, or 30.1% total. That put the county ahead of its pace from last year’s governor’s race, when it eventually finished at 55%, just above the statewide total of 54.31%.
That is where the caveat comes in. Morris’s chart did not appear to include every one of Virginia’s 132 localities, so the turnout advantage is real but not yet complete. The missing pieces matter because a partial map can make a statewide lead look cleaner than it may be once every locality is counted.
There was also a separate sign that the turnout fight is running through the same voters who are being asked to sort out the campaign’s sharpest issue. Barack Obama recorded a robocall for Beth Macy, telling voters she would fight to lower everyday costs, make healthcare more affordable, and push a moratorium on data centers. Macy has made that moratorium central to her campaign, while Ben Cline has indicated support for a pause as well.
For now, the question is not whether Democrats have a turnout edge; Morris’s numbers say they do. The question is whether that edge survives when the full statewide count is in after 7 p.m., or whether the counties still to be fully reflected narrow the margin enough to change the read on Virginia’s Election Day map.
