The Justice has published its NBA performance forecast as the NBA season gets underway, and the list points in two directions at once: three players are pegged for breakout seasons, while three others are projected to slip. Cooper Flagg, Naz Reid and Dylan Harper are the names marked for gains. Joel Embiid, Lauri Markkanen and Chet Holmgren are the ones facing a tougher statistical path.
That makes the forecast timely for readers looking ahead to NBA games tomorrow and the first early clues about which roles may change fastest. Flagg, fresh off a Rookie-of-the-Year campaign with the Dallas Mavericks, could make his first All-Star selection. Reid, traded from the Minnesota Timberwolves to the Charlotte Hornets, is set to start full-time for the first time in his career and could reach his first All-Star nod. Harper, who finished his rookie season on the biggest stage at the NBA Finals, averaged nearly seven more points per game there than he did in the regular season before earning a starting role.
The same forecast sees a step back for three established scorers, and that is where the numbers matter. Embiid has averaged more than 25 points per game in six of the last eight seasons, but the prediction says he will not get back to that mark this year. That call leans on the idea that injuries and two added ball-dominant players will leave him with less room to dominate every possession. Markkanen, who averaged a career-high 26.7 points per game last season, is projected to see his scoring dip because Utah has added another top-five pick and Jaren Jackson Jr., who has averaged around 20 points per game over the past five seasons, and more players will need the ball.
Holmgren’s outlook is more subtle, but it carries the same warning. He posted a career high in scoring last season, yet he averaged seven fewer points per game in the Western Conference Finals than he did in the regular season, a reminder that big-stage usage can shrink when the pressure rises. The forecast also says Victor Wembanyama, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, has separated himself as the better player than Holmgren. In that sense, the piece is less a verdict than a starting point: injuries, trades and coaching changes can rewrite any forecast before the All-Star break, and the first few months of the 82-game season will show which names were ready for the leap and which ones were not.
