Authorities in and around Pagosa Springs warned Sunday that the San Juan River could surge to 21.84 feet by 11 p.m., a level more than 4 feet above the 1911 flood crest. By late evening, the river had crested lower than forecast, at 16.8 feet around 8 p.m., but officials still said flooding was severe enough to force evacuations and threaten roads across southwestern Colorado.
That warning mattered because more than 1,000 homes in Archuleta County were already under mandatory evacuation orders, and residents in low-lying areas along the San Juan, Rio Blanco, Navajo and Piedra rivers were told to leave. The Archuleta County Sheriff’s Office said people should not wait for water to rise before going, while Archuleta County also ordered everyone to avoid nonessential travel for the duration of the storm.
Brooke Scholtens said Sunday afternoon that the river was expected to reach the extreme forecast level by 11 p.m., and officials later said rivers were still rising, more rain was expected and road conditions were deteriorating. Smaller creeks and drainage areas were also flooding from runoff because the ground was already saturated and had little capacity to absorb more water.
The pressure on the river system came after last week’s storm had already damaged roads, bridges and public infrastructure across the region, leaving some of the homes now under mandatory evacuation orders covered by a previous warning. Officials said flows would be nearly 7 feet above last week’s peak of about 15 feet, and they warned that major roads could be washed out and downtown bridges could collapse if the river reached the highest forecast levels.
Mike Le Roux said crews could go door to door, but they could not know how many people remained inside the evacuation zone because some residents may have returned home after leaving. That uncertainty is now the hardest part of the response: the river did not reach the most dangerous forecast, but it still rose high enough to keep the evacuation orders in place and leave Archuleta County watching for the next surge while San Juan County ordered its own evacuations for homes near the La Plata, San Juan and Animas rivers.
