Authorities ordered immediate evacuations in parts of southwestern Colorado on Sunday as the San Juan River in Pagosa Springs was forecast to surge to 21.84 feet by 11 p.m., a level more than 4 feet above the 1911 historic flood mark. Residents in low-lying areas along the San Juan, Rio Blanco, Navajo and Piedra rivers were told to leave at once.
The warning landed while the river was already rising fast. At 2 p.m. Sunday, it stood at about 10.5 feet, slightly above flooding levels, and the revised forecast put it nearly 7 feet above last week’s peak of about 15 feet. More than 1,000 homes were under mandatory evacuation orders in Archuleta County, and many of them had already been under orders during last week’s storm.
Mike Le Roux said crews were knocking on doors, but he added that officials could not guarantee everyone who left had stayed away. He said that made it hard to know how many people were still inside the evacuation zone, even after repeated checks. The sheriff’s office also urged residents not to wait for water to rise or for another warning, and the county asked all residents to avoid nonessential travel during the storm.
The threat went beyond the main river. Saturated ground had little capacity to absorb more rain, and smaller creeks and drainage areas were already sending runoff into places that were not built to carry it. Charles Balke said everything coming down was increasing flood potential and standing water outside normal drainage, while officials warned that major roads could be washed out, downtown bridges could collapse and power poles near the river could be knocked down.
Rain was expected to continue Sunday through Monday, with 1 to 3 inches forecast across southwestern Colorado and as much as 4 inches in some areas. The river was expected to crest by 11 p.m., and the question that mattered most was not whether the warning was serious — it was how many homes in Archuleta County were still occupied when the water reached its peak.
